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[PARAMETERS]

REVENUE

20.8%% GDP

EXPENDITURE

23.0%% GDP

DEBT

2.2%% GDP
warning

REVENUE

20.8%% GDP

EXPENDITURE

23.0%% GDP

DEBT

2.2%% GDP
warning

1 - Labor-based taxes

GDP Account Tax Revenue
% of GDP		 Effective rate (%)
Salaried worker remuneration
(22.093% of GDP)		 Income tax - ISR (wages)
26.91 create
“Labor-based” mixed income
(13.210% of GDP)		 Income tax - ISR (individuals)
21.11 create
Salaried worker remuneration
+ SSCs (26.527% of GDP)		 IMSS contributions 26.9 create
Labor-based revenue
(40.061% of GDP)		 Labor-based tax 48.02

Effective rate = Revenue/GDP account*100

2 - Consumption taxes

GDP Account Tax Revenue
% of GDP		 Effective Rate (%)
Household consumption*
(47.277% of GDP)		 VAT
50.72 create
Vehicle purchases
(2.911% of GDP)		 Tax on New Automobiles - ISAN 26.91 create
Household consumption
(66.045% of GDP)		 Excise tax - IEPS 66.36 create
Imports: balance of trade (36.745% of GDP) Imports 26.91 create
Household consumption
(66.045% of GDP)		 Consumption taxes 48.02

Effective rate = Revenue/GDP account*100
* Does not include food or health services.

3 - Capital incomes

GDP Account Tax and income Revenue
% of GDP		 Effective Rate (%)
Private companies
and NPISH (31.468% of GDP)		 Corporation tax – ISR (legal entities)
 32.30 create
Capital income*
(38.073% of GDP)		 Mexican Petroleum Fund – FMP 32.30 create
Capital income*
(38.073% of GDP)		 CFE, Pemex, IMSS,
ISSSTE		 32.30 create
Capital income*
(38.073% of GDP)		 Duties, fees, and levies – DPA; other 00.00 create
Capital income
(42.446% of GDP)		 Tax and income
from capital		 32.30

Effective rate = Revenue/GDP account*100
* Does not include imputed rent.

1 - Education

EXPENDITURE BY LEVEL STUDENTS EXPENDITURE
% of GDP		 Per cápita ($)
Basic 24,597,234 1.99 create
Upper secondary 5,353,499 0.41 create
Higher 4,579,894 0.52 create
Postgraduate 403,312 0.03 create
Adult 1,905,180 0.03 create
Other education expenditure 36,839,119 0.03 create
TOTAL 36,839,119 3

Per capita = Annual expenditure/Students

2 - Health

EXPENDITURE BY INSTITUTION NUMBER COVERED EXPENDITURE
% of GDP		 Per cápita ($)
SSA (not enrolled in social security) 128,116,912 0.212 create
IMSS-Bienetar 11,768,906 0.5 create
INSABI 68,069,755 0.70 create
IMSS 70,519,555 1.20 create
ISSSTE 13,81,797 0.23 create
Pemex, ISSFAM 588,049 0.09 create
TOTAL 128,116,912 3

Per capita = Annual expenditure/Number covered

3 - Pensions

EXPENDITURE BY INSTITUTION PENSIONERS EXPENDITURE
% of GDP		 Per cápita ($)
Bienestar pension 10,320,548 0.17 create
IMSS 4,723,530 1.67 create
ISSSTE 1,230,999 0.90 create
Pemex, CFE, LFC, Ferronales, ISSFAM 175,228 0.27 create
TOTAL 16,450,305 3

Per capita = Annual expenditure/Pensioners

4 - Other expenditures

EXPENDITURE Population EXPENDITURE
% of GDP		 Per cápita ($)
Personal services 128,116,912 2 create
Materials and supplies 128,116,912 2 create
Materials and supplies 128,116,912 2 create
Subsidies and transfers 128,116,912 2 create
Real and personal property 128,116,912 2 create
Infrastructure 128,116,912 2 create
Financial investment 128,116,912 2 create
Discretionary and non-discretionary federal transfers 128,116,912 2 create
Cost of debt 128,116,912 2 create
TOTAL 128,116,912 3

Per capita = Annual expenditure/Population

5 - Basic universal income

Basic universal income POPULATION EXPENDITURE
% of GDP		 Per cápita ($)


126,942,437 0% create

Per capita = Annual expenditure/Population

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TEST

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
Year
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025+
Grow. (%)
DEUDA
Effective Interest Rate of Debt (%)
Exchange rate (MXN/USD)
Depreciation (MXN/USD anual)

©2021 | CIEP Tax Simulator v5

Fiscal Incidence

How much would households contribute?

Source: Prepared with the CIEP Tax Simulator v5.

Decile Annual contribution
by household ($)		 Distribution
(%)		 % of household annual income
I -$9,000    
II -$9,000    
III -$9,000    
IV -$9,000    
V -$9,000    
VI -$9,000    
VII -$9,000    
VIII -$9,000    
IX -$9,000    
X -$9,000    
Nacional -$9,000    

That will depend on the obligations and benefits

By adding all contributions paid and subtracting all public expenditure received, we obtain the net contributions in our simulation. The hope is for income redistribution to be progressive: those with the most should contribute the most, and those with the least should receive the most.

The first column indicates the household income decile. The second column is a household’s average yearly aggregate contribution. The third column shows how contributions are distributed across households. The fourth column calculates the contribution as a proportion of household income.

Fiscal Life Cycle

How would people contribute?

Source: Prepared with the CIEP Tax Simulator v5.

That will also depend on their life cycle

Firstly, the way people produce and consume changes at each stage of life. The young go to school or university, adults go to work, and older people start to retire. This pattern is similar all over the world.

Secondly, gender roles, wage differentials, and unequal opportunities between men and women also affects economic behavior and tax obligations. Here we summarize intra-household transfers (e.g. from parent to child, if they live together) and inter-household transfers (e.g. from grandparent to grandchild, if they do not live together).

Projection of fiscal contributions

Because demographic transition exists and is difficult to reverse

Since the 1970s, there has been a continual increase in the Mexican population aged 16 to 65 years as a result of a phenomenon known as a “demographic dividend”. This means there are more potential workers and fewer economic dependents.

However, depending on fiscal commitments toward young people (like education) and the elderly (like pensions), net contributions may reach a maximum one year. In other words, there is a possibility that at one point, there will be more people requiring public services and fewer people contributing through tax.

Will contributions reach a maximum?

Source: Prepared with the CIEP Tax Simulator v5.

+ Revenue

How much funding will be available?

Source: Prepared with the CIEP Tax Simulator v5.

All revenue in the budget should be taken into account

Taxes on labor-based income and on consumption are influenced by the composition of the population and its productivity. Taxes and income from capital depend on economic activity.

With the effective rates modelled for the different components of GDP, demographic transition and economic growth, the amount of public resources available can be projected into the future. This amount should be sufficient to support government spending.

- Expenditure

All government obligations should be taken into account

Health, education, pensions, basic universal income, the Bienestar pension and other expenses are also driven by the composition of the population. The repayment and financial cost of debt include components relating to balance, interest rates, and exchange rates.

Simulating the per capita expenditure incurred by government commitments makes it possible to project the level of resources needed in the future. Expenditure should not exceed government revenue.

What commitments must be met?

Source: Prepared with the CIEP Tax Simulator v5.

= Debt

Would it be sustainable in the long term?

Source: Prepared with the CIEP Tax Simulator v5.

To prevent subsequent changes in revenue and/or expenditure

The long-term debt trend represents the government’s capacity to meet its obligations given its capacity to raise revenue. A stable, or ideally downward, trend is desired.

An increasing debt can mean generational inequity: spending future resources that have not yet been generated. Unsustainability would mean passing on the burden of debt to future generations, who may not benefit from it.

Fiscal redistribution

How do public resources flow?

Source: Prepared with the CIEP Tax Simulator v5.

Taxpaying
population		 Revenue (flows as a % of GDP) Public
expenditure		 Beneficiary
population

This is the beginning and end of the tax system

People are the beginning and the end. They are the basis and target of the tax system. It is individuals who produce public resources and who receive and benefit from them.

On the far left of the chart, households contribute taxes and public revenue. In the middle, the tax system consolidates all these funds. On the far right, implemented policies and programs redistribute resources to households and other systems.

About the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP)

CIEP is a not-for-profit, non-partisan civil society research center that provides accessible, relevant, and technically sound information and analyses to influence, improve and democratize discussions and decision-making in economics and public finances, with the goal of making the tax system sustainable for the benefit of current and future generations.

Go to: www.ciep.mx